I have not updated in a while. I've been too busy with work, but my goodness have I missed a bunch of news.
I agree completely with the analysis on the state of the race by the folks at RealClearPolitics, which you can read here. NRO online, as always has excellent insight, from the Conservative perspective.
I happen to think that the Kerry campaign is headed for an implosion. No candidate since Richard Nixon has taken the kind of non-stop pounding that Bush has over the last six months. That he is not down by twenty points is, to me, difficult to comprehend. I add a few thoughts not converted by RCP or NRO.
First, Charlie Cook's analysis fails to take into account Bush's floor. If Bush were weak, I would expect to see his numbers dip periodically into the 30s. They have not. Bush appears to have a floor of around 45%. I think that number is low. Bush's floor is probably his approval rating. Anyone who right now approves of the job that the President is doing is almost certain to be a likely Bush voter. That puts his floor at closer to 47%. Even if the 10% of the voters who are undecided break 2/3 for Kerry, Bush will probably have just enough to win.
Second, I continue to contend that this election is not going to be as close as some of the commentators seem to suggest. That is just media spin in search of a horserace. This race is probably going to break in early October and it will likely break decisively in one direction or the other. I expect the winning margin to be closer to five or six points.
Third, and Rich Lowery captured some of this in his piece on NRO online earlier this week--the democrats are so arrogant that they will destroy themselves and Kerry in the process. They are so convinced that Bush is an idiot, that they are ripe for the "rope a dope" that I believe is in process. Karl Rove--the democrat's "mad genius"--is simply too smart and too disciplined not to have an end game, even if I can't see what it is right now.
