Sunday, August 22, 2004

I feel a little sorry for Kerry...

because the swift-vote thing is just the tip of the ice-burg. I assume that the swift-vet stuff was not coordinated, for the sake of this argument. The Bush campaign has much worse in store. And the sad thing for Kerry is that Bush will still manage to remain positive.

Coordination is very difficult to prove. It is kind of like proving collusion and price-fixing between gas stations on opposite corners of the same street. Remember when Kerry announced that he was "going dark" in August and admitted that it was a tacit message to others, i.e. DNC and 527s, to pick up the slack.

I think the Kerry campaign folks are really out of their league. They had to know this was coming. They know the hits on his past record are coming. If they continue to respond by acting like cry-babies, Kerry will look weak and ineffectual--not a place for a challenger to be. But hey, he served in Vietnam!

The grand strategy is unfolding. The rope-a-dope has begun. If Bush comes out of his convention with any kind of serious lead (i.e. five or more points), it will be lights out.

This is exactly where the Bushies want this race--Kerry defending Kerry.

The Kerry Campaign's

reaction to the swift-vote vets "controversy" is a serious mistake. It illustrates either a) the Kerry campaign is out of its league, b) the Kerry camp, probably from on high, is arrogant and out of touch, or possibly both a) and b).

By drawing all of this attention to the ads, Kerry dignifies them. Significant portions of the American public do not trust the media, so the big media reaction to the problem is likely to make many voters feel that there "must be something to it all." The "liar, liar pants on fire" thing just doesn't wash.

Kerry's attack on the ads as a violation of the campaign rules is a serious mistake that is probably the turning point in this campaign. Kerry invites scrutiny of his campaign's ties to the anti-Bush groups and 527's, particularly to Michael Moore and George Soros. Kerry also doesn't address the substance of the ads directly. He tries to deflect attention away. This "problem" has thrown his campaign seriously off message and forced him to spend valuable time and resources dealing with it. Kerry should have ignored it and stayed on message. Bad move. Very bad move. Remember how the National Guard thing threw Bush off message...same thing here.

I didn't think the implosion would begin this early, but it has. Kerry has been flanked like Pope at second Manasses and Hooker at Chancellorsville. The results will probably be as devastating. Sun tsu is looking down with awe.