All of it. The Democrats think they will win because of their reading of the polls. The Republicans think they will win because of their spin on the polls. But in the end, that is all it is--SPIN. The election is still three and half months away. Anything can happen between now and then. Look how quickly former front-runner Howard Dean went down the tubes. If that is not enough to give anyone pause, I don't know what is.
That said. some additional thoughts:
I have maintained for some time that overconfidence will ultimately be the Democrats and Kerry's undoing. We are starting to see it come to roost during this convention. Does anyone seriously believe that Kerry has a chance to win in Virginia and South Carolina? If Kerry wins Virginia, you can go to bed at 9:00 on election night. That's the ballgame. I'd say there is very little chance of that happening, but who knows. I mean, hey, maybe Bush will win California. He's been there enough. Or how about New Jersey--the polls are close.
On a different note, can somebody please explain to me when Ron Reagan, Jr. was ever a Republican? The media is calling him a Republican. Apparently Republicans for Kerry has at least two members now--him and Theresa Kerry.
Finally, and the most promising piece of information for Bush--I heard this evening that Ed Koch has announced that he will support Bush in the election. Democrats for Bush is growing.
