about Gore in 2000...partisanship aside.
Can you imagine listening to this self-righteous ... for the next four years?
Thursday, July 29, 2004
Mary Beth Cahill just told
Fox News that: "George W. Bush has had three years to make America safer and he hasn't." Excuse me!
Glad you cleared this up....Kerry's Economic Plan
"First, new incentives to revitalize manufacturing. Second, investment in technology and innovation that will create the good-paying jobs of the future. Third, close the tax loopholes that reward companies for shipping our jobs overseas. Instead, we will reward companies that create and keep good paying jobs where they belong - in the good old U.S.A. "
This line is a non sequiter....
"You don't value families by kicking kids out of after school programs and taking cops off our streets, so that Enron can get another tax break."
How is Kerry going to...
ensure that 100% of the container ships coming into our ports are searched....shut down commerce?
What does this line mean:
"I will never fight a war without a plan to win the peace"....I'm a little scared by that.
Democrats New Found Love of the Military
Many of the democrats whom I know seem to think that Kerry's war service is the reason he will be elected over Bush. This is funny coming from folks who for decades attacked and gutted the U.S. Military. That being as it may, let me name a few war heroes who were not elected: George McGovern, Bob Dole, Curtis LeMay.
This is all so phony.
Was John Edwards in the military? I thought not. Why not?
When military service is a liability, i.e. Clinton, Democrats poo-poo it as not important. When it is a strength, they make up phony reasons to criticize a Republican president who actually did serve.
For all that one can say about the Republican and Democratic parties, one thing is clear. No party has done more to support the U.S. military than the Republican party. No party has done more damage to our security and to our military than the Democratic party. Facts. Plain and simple. The sooner the American people are reminded of that, the quicker Bush can out this thing away and get on with governing.
This is all so phony.
Was John Edwards in the military? I thought not. Why not?
When military service is a liability, i.e. Clinton, Democrats poo-poo it as not important. When it is a strength, they make up phony reasons to criticize a Republican president who actually did serve.
For all that one can say about the Republican and Democratic parties, one thing is clear. No party has done more to support the U.S. military than the Republican party. No party has done more damage to our security and to our military than the Democratic party. Facts. Plain and simple. The sooner the American people are reminded of that, the quicker Bush can out this thing away and get on with governing.
Tuesday, July 27, 2004
It's All Spin
All of it. The Democrats think they will win because of their reading of the polls. The Republicans think they will win because of their spin on the polls. But in the end, that is all it is--SPIN. The election is still three and half months away. Anything can happen between now and then. Look how quickly former front-runner Howard Dean went down the tubes. If that is not enough to give anyone pause, I don't know what is.
That said. some additional thoughts:
I have maintained for some time that overconfidence will ultimately be the Democrats and Kerry's undoing. We are starting to see it come to roost during this convention. Does anyone seriously believe that Kerry has a chance to win in Virginia and South Carolina? If Kerry wins Virginia, you can go to bed at 9:00 on election night. That's the ballgame. I'd say there is very little chance of that happening, but who knows. I mean, hey, maybe Bush will win California. He's been there enough. Or how about New Jersey--the polls are close.
On a different note, can somebody please explain to me when Ron Reagan, Jr. was ever a Republican? The media is calling him a Republican. Apparently Republicans for Kerry has at least two members now--him and Theresa Kerry.
Finally, and the most promising piece of information for Bush--I heard this evening that Ed Koch has announced that he will support Bush in the election. Democrats for Bush is growing.
That said. some additional thoughts:
I have maintained for some time that overconfidence will ultimately be the Democrats and Kerry's undoing. We are starting to see it come to roost during this convention. Does anyone seriously believe that Kerry has a chance to win in Virginia and South Carolina? If Kerry wins Virginia, you can go to bed at 9:00 on election night. That's the ballgame. I'd say there is very little chance of that happening, but who knows. I mean, hey, maybe Bush will win California. He's been there enough. Or how about New Jersey--the polls are close.
On a different note, can somebody please explain to me when Ron Reagan, Jr. was ever a Republican? The media is calling him a Republican. Apparently Republicans for Kerry has at least two members now--him and Theresa Kerry.
Finally, and the most promising piece of information for Bush--I heard this evening that Ed Koch has announced that he will support Bush in the election. Democrats for Bush is growing.
Thursday, July 22, 2004
Why do so many Americans think ...
that the economy is doing poorly? (Or so says the LA Times Poll) This bothers me. It is a sign that democrats and Kerry have managed to "talk down" the economy. Not a good thing for Bush...
About Polls and how Bush will win
When I was in law school, I wrote an opinion piece for the school paper on how polls are used to manipulate public opinion. The basic premise is this: there are truly undecided voters and then there are about 10% of voters who are squishy-types in our society. These individuals are the ones who really want to be liked. They will wait until the very last minute to make up their minds and will probably vote based upon a mystical amalgamation of a) who they think will win and b) who they think there friends are voting for. This leads to the types of strange momentum swings we see in the last few days before elections.
If I am right that Bush has a solid base of between 45-47%, he needs to hammer away at Kerry's soft voters. Bush will build a 4-6 point lead on Kerry by hammering him enough to peer back some of that soft support. IIn October, I would expect to see numbers like Bush 46 - Kerry 42, etc. The dems will spin that as Bush still being in trouble because he is below 50% and hasn't broken out of his base.
The squishy voters will see that Bush is ahead in the polls and decide that he will probably win, and therefore jump on the bandwagon. This movement will be helped by talk throughout the country of a positive economy and backlash against vitriol and hatred from the left.
In the end, Kerry will get most of the truly undecided voters, but Bush will get most of the "squishy" voters--the ones who want to vote for winner. These are the same folks who seem to have a baseball cap for every.
If I am right that Bush has a solid base of between 45-47%, he needs to hammer away at Kerry's soft voters. Bush will build a 4-6 point lead on Kerry by hammering him enough to peer back some of that soft support. IIn October, I would expect to see numbers like Bush 46 - Kerry 42, etc. The dems will spin that as Bush still being in trouble because he is below 50% and hasn't broken out of his base.
The squishy voters will see that Bush is ahead in the polls and decide that he will probably win, and therefore jump on the bandwagon. This movement will be helped by talk throughout the country of a positive economy and backlash against vitriol and hatred from the left.
In the end, Kerry will get most of the truly undecided voters, but Bush will get most of the "squishy" voters--the ones who want to vote for winner. These are the same folks who seem to have a baseball cap for every.
For Kerry to be such a good "closer"...
doesn't he need to be behind or locked in a tight race? Adding to my comments below, I would note that if the folks behind the scenes at Kerry-Edwards 2004, at DNC, etc., etc. are predicting a big Kerry win, Kerry may get overconfident. Mark Mehlman needs to figure out a creative way to spin the "closer" phenomenon.
When Bush is up by six in mid-October, expect to hear 24-7 news analysis about Kerry the strong "closer."
When Bush is up by six in mid-October, expect to hear 24-7 news analysis about Kerry the strong "closer."
Updates
I have not updated in a while. I've been too busy with work, but my goodness have I missed a bunch of news.
I agree completely with the analysis on the state of the race by the folks at RealClearPolitics, which you can read here. NRO online, as always has excellent insight, from the Conservative perspective.
I happen to think that the Kerry campaign is headed for an implosion. No candidate since Richard Nixon has taken the kind of non-stop pounding that Bush has over the last six months. That he is not down by twenty points is, to me, difficult to comprehend. I add a few thoughts not converted by RCP or NRO.
First, Charlie Cook's analysis fails to take into account Bush's floor. If Bush were weak, I would expect to see his numbers dip periodically into the 30s. They have not. Bush appears to have a floor of around 45%. I think that number is low. Bush's floor is probably his approval rating. Anyone who right now approves of the job that the President is doing is almost certain to be a likely Bush voter. That puts his floor at closer to 47%. Even if the 10% of the voters who are undecided break 2/3 for Kerry, Bush will probably have just enough to win.
Second, I continue to contend that this election is not going to be as close as some of the commentators seem to suggest. That is just media spin in search of a horserace. This race is probably going to break in early October and it will likely break decisively in one direction or the other. I expect the winning margin to be closer to five or six points.
Third, and Rich Lowery captured some of this in his piece on NRO online earlier this week--the democrats are so arrogant that they will destroy themselves and Kerry in the process. They are so convinced that Bush is an idiot, that they are ripe for the "rope a dope" that I believe is in process. Karl Rove--the democrat's "mad genius"--is simply too smart and too disciplined not to have an end game, even if I can't see what it is right now.
I agree completely with the analysis on the state of the race by the folks at RealClearPolitics, which you can read here. NRO online, as always has excellent insight, from the Conservative perspective.
I happen to think that the Kerry campaign is headed for an implosion. No candidate since Richard Nixon has taken the kind of non-stop pounding that Bush has over the last six months. That he is not down by twenty points is, to me, difficult to comprehend. I add a few thoughts not converted by RCP or NRO.
First, Charlie Cook's analysis fails to take into account Bush's floor. If Bush were weak, I would expect to see his numbers dip periodically into the 30s. They have not. Bush appears to have a floor of around 45%. I think that number is low. Bush's floor is probably his approval rating. Anyone who right now approves of the job that the President is doing is almost certain to be a likely Bush voter. That puts his floor at closer to 47%. Even if the 10% of the voters who are undecided break 2/3 for Kerry, Bush will probably have just enough to win.
Second, I continue to contend that this election is not going to be as close as some of the commentators seem to suggest. That is just media spin in search of a horserace. This race is probably going to break in early October and it will likely break decisively in one direction or the other. I expect the winning margin to be closer to five or six points.
Third, and Rich Lowery captured some of this in his piece on NRO online earlier this week--the democrats are so arrogant that they will destroy themselves and Kerry in the process. They are so convinced that Bush is an idiot, that they are ripe for the "rope a dope" that I believe is in process. Karl Rove--the democrat's "mad genius"--is simply too smart and too disciplined not to have an end game, even if I can't see what it is right now.
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