I've been busy with my work, so I haven't had time to do anything here. However, I have been in communication with a few of my fellow political observers and been able to formulate some thoughts on where we are.
First, a couple notes on where we have come. I do not think that Bush's performance on "Meet the Press" was very effective. But I don't think it was all that bad either. I haven't heard all that much long term-discussion about it. That shows me that it lasted one or two news cycles and that most of us moved on to something else.
Second, the national guard un-story. Give me break. Unless someone is sitting on the smoking gun document (and I doubt that), this story will be old news by March. Old news is fair game in politics, though, and the e-mails that I am getting from democrats suggest that we are in for a long summer and fall of re-hashing old stories, no matter how little (if any) evidence exists to support them.
Third, Kerry's "wins" in Virginia and Tennessee. It is a stretch to translate that into proof that Kerry can win those states in November. George McGovern also won Virginia during the democratic nomination fight in 1972. A primary victory is only that, a primary victory. If it meant more, Bush would have carried New York and California in 2000.
That brings us to the state of the race today.
We've all heard the big Kerry story. Let me just say this: I do not think that who Kerry sleeps with has any relevance to his capacity to be president. His left-wing voting record does. I'm going to save my thoughts on who is behind this story for another time after I've had a chance to reflect upon it some more.
The big questions is whether this will derail Kerry's candidacy. I don't think that it will. Apparently he is preparing a response. Kerry should say something like: " The story is true. The relationship is over, and the rest is nobody's business." If he does, story is over. I predict that he will blame Republicans and some-kind of right-wing conspiracy. This will fire up his base, but will escalate what is already becoming a very ugly and personal political season. I hope I'm wrong.
