Has Kerry Peaked?

Kerry appears to be unable to really break the low 50%, while Bush appears to have hit his floor--44%. If that is true, than the President now has nowhere to go but up. Polls are, however, highly suspicious. The key polls are the Gallup Polls immediately after the major party conventions and the debates in the Fall. In my opinion, they show a decent (however imperfect) view of public movement to and away-from candidates.