It appears that Kerry has a significant lead in the polls. Unless there is some indication of movement tonight or tomorrow night, I think that it is very likely that Kerry will win. Historically, that means that Kerry will likely get the nomination. In 1972, Muskie won Iowa and New Hampshire only to self-destruct, but the nomination process is different now. The primaries are so front-loaded that the powerful momentum of dual wins in Iowa and NH is going to be difficult to break.
That DOES NOT mean that it is over. This year has already seen surprises, so we may yet be in for a few. Additionally, several of the candidates have an awful lot of money, and will certainly not go away without putting up some kind of fight post-New Hampshire.
Everyone knows the story of how Bill Clinton somehow converted a second-place showing in NH to a victory. In 1992, however, different individuals won in Iowa and NH. In 1984, Mondale won in Iowa, while Gary "Monkey Business" Hart took the NH primary. Similarly, in 1988, Gephardt won in Iowa, but Michael "tank" Dukakis won NH. All eyes, therefore, appear to be on second place. While a strong second for Dean might give him a new boost, it probably won't be enough for him to get the nomination. If Edwards pulls off a last-minute surge and gets second, he could be well positioned to take some Southern and Western primaries in the coming weeks, although it will also probably not be enough for him to win the whole thing. The wildcard down the stretch is "Superdelegates," who are likely to back an establishment candidate, giving an edge to Kerry.
I predict that the Dems will have a nominee-in-waiting after March 2. It is impossible to understate the impact of the "band-wagon" and "electability" factors. Individuals, naturally, want to vote for a winner. At the same time, it is clear--as of today--that the dems want to nominate the candidate with the best chance to beat Bush. The new polls that show Kerry with a commanding lead in NH AND beating Bush are probably too much psychological momentum to overcome.
