My numbers might be close...

How big will the victory be? How much money is Kerry going to have to spend to keep this thing? Interesting analogy on Fox News: comparing Dean's strategy going forward to Ronald Reagan's 1976 campaign.

According to the Library & Archives of New Hampshire's Political Tradition

"No incumbent president running for re-election and who had no significant opposition on the party's New Hampshire primary ballot has ever been defeated for a second term as president: Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956, Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1964, Richard M. Nixon in 1972, Ronald Reagan in 1984, Bill Clinton in 1996."....George W. Bush in 2004?

NH Primary Eve Prediction

I stick with my prediction from this morning. I've seen nothing to change that. The fact that Dean has a steller organization in place might make a difference if it snows, but his strength and organization did nothing to help him in Iowa.

Well put...

and I agree, nobody cares much what Hollywood has to say about anything. Or do they? Actors and Actresses do have a certain popular appeal, although I will note that the ones who have achieved the most political success in my lifetime have been Republicans--Reagan, Bono, Schwartzanegger, Eastwood, Grandy. Thankfully for America, however, those award shows only happen a couple of times a year. Welcome to the "word war" Dave!

Zogby Reports movement toward Dean...

but I doubt it will be enough. Morning prediction, Kerry 33, Dean 25, Edwards 19, Clark 10, others 13

Initial New Hampshire Prediction

It appears that Kerry has a significant lead in the polls. Unless there is some indication of movement tonight or tomorrow night, I think that it is very likely that Kerry will win. Historically, that means that Kerry will likely get the nomination. In 1972, Muskie won Iowa and New Hampshire only to self-destruct, but the nomination process is different now. The primaries are so front-loaded that the powerful momentum of dual wins in Iowa and NH is going to be difficult to break.

That DOES NOT mean that it is over. This year has already seen surprises, so we may yet be in for a few. Additionally, several of the candidates have an awful lot of money, and will certainly not go away without putting up some kind of fight post-New Hampshire.

Everyone knows the story of how Bill Clinton somehow converted a second-place showing in NH to a victory. In 1992, however, different individuals won in Iowa and NH. In 1984, Mondale won in Iowa, while Gary "Monkey Business" Hart took the NH primary. Similarly, in 1988, Gephardt won in Iowa, but Michael "tank" Dukakis won NH. All eyes, therefore, appear to be on second place. While a strong second for Dean might give him a new boost, it probably won't be enough for him to get the nomination. If Edwards pulls off a last-minute surge and gets second, he could be well positioned to take some Southern and Western primaries in the coming weeks, although it will also probably not be enough for him to win the whole thing. The wildcard down the stretch is "Superdelegates," who are likely to back an establishment candidate, giving an edge to Kerry.

I predict that the Dems will have a nominee-in-waiting after March 2. It is impossible to understate the impact of the "band-wagon" and "electability" factors. Individuals, naturally, want to vote for a winner. At the same time, it is clear--as of today--that the dems want to nominate the candidate with the best chance to beat Bush. The new polls that show Kerry with a commanding lead in NH AND beating Bush are probably too much psychological momentum to overcome.

Last on New Hampshire Debate-- It is a shame that

Joe Lieberman's a Democrat. I think he would do well as a New England Republican. Alas, he's forever identified with Al Gore's failure in 2000 and probably permanent damaged goods as a result. Has anyone ever LOST as a major party nominee for Vice President (without ever having won at some point) and later been elected president?

New Hampshire Debate Observation #3 -- John Edwards Doesn't Know

Very much about the law. The Brady Bill has already sunsetted. I assume that he meant that he would renew the Assault Weapons Ban. Similarly, he clearly (or through willful blindness) does not understand the purpose behind the proposals to prohibit states from recognizing (or being required to recognize) gay marriage. Arguably, the "full faith and credit" provision in the US Constitution requires states to recognize "marriages" from other states. With the current trend on the US Supreme Court, something clearly needs to be done to allow states the freedom to define marriage as they wish, without running afoul of the U.S. Constitution.

New Hampshire Debate Observation #2 -- At Least Al Sharpton is Honest

"Would I replace Alan Greenspan, probably. Do I have a name, no?"

NH Debate observation #1 -- Clark Is A Lightweight

He looked like a deer caught in the headlight when confronted with one of his statements. How can he possibly say with a straight face that Bush is not doing all that he needs to do to protect America, and at the same time say that some of the solutions (i.e. Patriot Act), go to far. That's just plain goofy. At the same time, Clark sounds totally conspiratorial when he suggests that Bush didn't protect the United States before 9/11/01. None of these guys has any idea how to answer the question: "What would you do differently?"

Dean's Meltdown

We've all heard this over and over again. The question is what impact it will have. If Dean has a moment like Reagan's "I am paying for this microphone" line in 1980, Dean may be able to recover and win in NH. THe long term damage, however, is yet to be seen. IF Dean is the nominee, that clip will be fodder through November.