In a piece of overlooked news, the Supreme Court of the United States ruled in Vieth v. Jubelirer that political gerrymandering claims are not cognizable under the U.S. Constitution, effectively overruling Davis v. Bandemer. This means that the GOP will control the House of Representatives at least until the next census. With success in Georgia combating the Democrats gerrymandering and with politically motivated plans in Florida, Texas and Pennsylvania, it will be very difficult for the Democrats to make up ground in the House.
As for the Senate, here is how I see the race today. The GOP stands to lose two seats in Illinois and Alaska, while defending two tight races in Colorado and Oklahoma, with Pennsylvania a possible democratic upset. On the other side, the democrats will almost certainly lose Georgia and South Carolina, offsetting GOP loses in IL and OK. Republicans have a real shot of taking the seat in Florida, as well as the seats in North Carolina and Louisiana. Add to this the competitive race in South Dakota, and possibly competitive races in NV and California, and it looks like the GOP has a slight, but discernible early advantage in the Senate. Current prediction GOP +1 .
I've been away for a while, so I will devote a couple of posts to the state of the Presidential Race.
